10kclimatechallenge
10kclimatechallenge
Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)
Temperature Questions
These are all the questions I found related to this subject in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.
AR6 coming soon!
When it comes to today’s warming a big question is what is warming? Is it the entire earth, the hemispheres, land surfaces, oceans, atmosphere, just what exactly is warming?
For example, one of the biggest areas of question is if both Hemisphere are warming and if so, are they warming at the same rates? Keep in mind the Southern Hemisphere has much more water which stores heat much more efficiently than the land surface of Northern Hemisphere and the atmosphere.
Below is a graph of the GISP and Vostok ice core temperature data since the end of the last ice age on the centennial time scale. GISP stands for Greenland Ice Sheet Project representing the Northern Hemisphere and Vostok is the ice core from Vostok Antarctica (the coldest place on earth).
The IPCC states ice cores give us important data points on past climate temperature and atmospheric conditions. (AR4 Section 1.3.3 Page 106)
Notice the ice cores show the Southern and Northern Hemispheres are out of sync for the most part since the last ice age and capable of transporting heat around the globe.
(Blue is the SH, Red is the NH covering 5000 years.)
The IPCC acknowledge the hemispheres have been out of sync by stating this has even caused many drastic climate shifts in the past as a result of ocean currents transporting heat between hemispheres. These changes were from internal forcing not a change in the global radiation budget or CO2. The IPCC goes on to tells us “changes are not synchronous in Greenland and Antarctica, and they are in opposite direction in the South and North Atlantic.” (AR4 FAQ 6.1 Page 449)
The IPCC explains surface air warms faster over land compared to over the oceans. They note most of the land is in the NH, not SH. They also claim there is a greater uptake of heat from the Southern Ocean compared to Northern Ocean. They conclude the NH warms faster than the SH. Plus the Antarctic is made of land that warms slower than the Artic ocean. (AR5 Section 12.4.1.1 Page 1055)
The IPCC goes on to tells us proxy data shows when the NH warmed the SH cooled and vice versa many times indicating the oceans transport heat between hemispheres. (AR4 Section 6.4.2.2 Page 456)
They note ‘Arctic Amplification’ where the Arctic surface warming is a faster rate than rest of planet. (AR5 Section 10.5.1.1 Page 906)
The IPCC goes on in AR4 stating the “warming is smaller in SH than in the NH”. (AR4 Section 9.4.2 Page 693)
Here in AR4 the IPCC admits there are few proxy records for the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere and as a result the uncertainties are much higher. They go on to state that today it is better to consider regional indicators of temperature change. (AR4 Section 6.6.2 Page 474)
For example, in AR4 the IPCC notes during the last 100 years or up to 2005 the “areas of south of Greenland and parts of North and South America” have not been warming. They go on, “Warming has been the strongest over the continental interiors of Asia and northwestern North America and some mid-latitude ocean regions of the SH as well as south-eastern Brazil.” (AR4 Section 9.4.2 Page 693)
AR5 goes on to state some regions have seen a cooling like “Pacific coast of South America”. (AR5 Section 2.4.1.2 Page 188)
Despite this AR5 states “with high confidence, that the mean NH temperature of the last 30 or 50 years very likely exceeded and previous 30 to 50 year mean during the past 800 years”. (AR5 Section 5.3.5.1 Page 409)
AR5 notes the eastern pacific and Southern Oceans cooled from 1979-2010. They note models in the future must handle these areas differently, or not as hot. (AR5 Section 10.3.1.1.2 Page 881)
As you can see there is more understanding today of how heat can transfer from one hemisphere to the other via ocean currents, but much more needs to be learned.
Southern Hemisphere vs Northern Hemisphere - Above
Many Temperature Questions.
Next, it is important to look at the temperature questions found in different regions.
For example, the IPCC tells us here a few regions have cooled since 1901 like northern North Atlantic near southern Greenland. They claim “warming at the same time has been strongest over the interiors of Asia and northern North America”.
They show regions in a figure here of the warming and cooling in the Pacific Ocean that has resulted from El Nino. (AR4 FAQ 3.1 Page 252 (AR5 37)
The Questions Chapter
Over 150 climate questions from AR4/AR5.
Questions and more questions.
This section highlights all the important climate questions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5. AR6 is coming soon!
AR4 and AR5 make up the most complete and current climate information out there, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.
You make think over time there would be less questions as the climate gets figured out, but from AR4 to AR5 the number of question and material increased by several fold.
One reason for this increase in climate questions from AR4 to AR5 is the fact many predictions made in AR4 were missed, and things have been learned.
The IPCC examines most of these in more detail throughout AR5 using AR4 as a base for the science.
Inspiring the next generation
You might be on the same path?
Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”.
Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.
AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists.
I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.
Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5
Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.
Following the Science
Become an informed climate activist!
10kclimatechallange
All the Chapters
My Personal Climate Journey.
35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.
Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5
Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.
Theory Chapter
Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.
Temperature Chapter
What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.
Model Chapter
Why use models? How are they doing?
Ocean Chapter
Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.
Atmosphere Chapter
Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?
Gases Chapter
Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Civilization Chapter
Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.
Question Chapter - ON LINE
Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.
Prediction Chapter
Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.
What is the IPCC?
UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.
AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)