10kclimatechallenge
10kclimatechallenge
Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)
Climate Predictions
These are all the predictions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.
Here the IPCC goes on to make more specific predictions about temperature. Clouds mentioned in these statements seem to be a large uncertainty.
For the future, an important prediction is how much 100 ppm or so of CO2 will rise earth’s temperature?
Today the range has been wide as the IPCC admits the CMIP3 models in AR4 had a range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.1°C to 4.4°C. They go on to explain the biggest reason for the range is because of cloud feedbacks differences between models. (AR5 Section 9.7.1 Page 817)
The IPCC goes on to claim direct temperature change from greenhouse gas can be calculated “in a relatively straightforward manner”, but admit uncertainty in atmospheric feedbacks lead to uncertain predictions of the future climate. (AR4 Section 9.6 Page 718)
The IPCC specifically list the “likely” temperature increase for each known forcing giving us a total. For example, greenhouse gases likely increase between –0.6°C and 0.1°C. (AR5 Chapter 10 Executive Summary Page 869)
They go on to state natural forcing’s are likely very low, only –0.1°C and 0.1°C, with internal variability likely at –0.1°C to 0.1°C. (AR5 Chapter 10 Executive Summary Page 869). I have to say with models missing the warming hiatus I am very surprised AR5 list such a low range here.
Overall, in AR5 the IPCC currently predicts, based on simulations of global temperatures rise, will “likely exceed 1.5°C above 1850-1900” but “unlikely” to go above 4°C by 2081–2100. (AR5 Chapter 12 Executive Summary Page 1031)
This is a bit of a change downward from AR4 as they were more focused on a 5°C change this century. For example, they stated past ice core data, sediment cores, and other things concluded that if temperature goes up the worst case was to 5°C in this century which will match what happened at the end of the ice age, and possibly the fastest rate in last 50 million years. (AR4 FAQ 6.2 Page 465)
So Many Temperature Predictions
Next the IPCC states understanding past temperature changes are important for the models to “be considered a viable tool for future projections” as they have to be able to simulate the past climate. (AR5 Section 9.2.3 Page 755)
Predictions on past temperatures might sound funny but here they are.
For example, the IPCC notes a study for the NH showing the medieval was indeed warm on the 2-kyr time scale. However, they say they cannot prove whether it was as warm as today, or how large the warming lasted in different regions as we see in 20th century. (AR4 Box 6.4 Page 468)
The Prediction Chapter
Many More Predictions in AR4 than AR5, Why?
This section highlights all the important climate predictions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5.
AR4 and AR5 are the most complete and current climate information out there today, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.
I find it interesting from AR4 to AR5 climate questions have grown by several fold while predictions from the IPPC are less in AR5 than they were made in AR4. Why?
One reason for this increase in questions and less predictions comes from the fact many predictions the IPCC made in AR4 were missed. Including major predictions like the warming hiatus.
However, all this is not bad news as the IPCC is really learning more about the climate and learning more about the complex processes it holds.
This is just another example that the climate is not “figure out” and why the next generation of climate activists and scientists are needed more than ever!
Inspiring the next generation
You might be on the same path?
Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”.
Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.
AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists.
I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.
Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5
Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.
Following the Science
Become an informed climate activist!
10kclimatechallange
All the Chapters
My Personal Climate Journey.
35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.
Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5
Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.
Theory Chapter
Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.
Temperature Chapter
What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.
Model Chapter
Why use models? How are they doing?
Ocean Chapter
Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.
Atmosphere Chapter
Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?
Gases Chapter
Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Civilization Chapter
Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.
Question Chapter - ON LINE
Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.
Prediction Chapter
Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.
What is the IPCC?
UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.
AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)
Weather versus Climate
Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?
