10kclimatechallenge
10kclimatechallenge
Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)
Climate Predictions
These are all the predictions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.
There are many questions on regional temperature differences but today the IPCC believes they have “high confidence” they can reproduce large-scale surface temperatures. However, they admit errors in regions up to several degrees. (AR5 Chapter 9 Executive Summary Page 743)
In AR5 the IPCC believes with “high confidence” their regional predictions are more accurate than they were in AR4. (AR5 Chapter 9 Executive Summary Page 743)
They go on to claim with “very high confidence” the Artic will lead the way in warming. (AR5 Chapter 12 Executive Summary Page 1031)
To conclude the IPCC goes on to note changes in global temperature are not the same across all regions, but despite this they claim they have “very high confidence” that on a global scale average temperature changes over land will exceed changes over the ocean at the end of the 21st century. (AR5 Chapter 12 Executive Summary Page 1031)
So Many Temperature Predictions
The IPCC in AR5 introduces effective radiative forcing (ERF) to quantify the impact of some forcing agents that involve rapid adjustments of components of the surface and atmosphere that are seen as constant in the RF concept
Note, the IPCC states ERF is an improved way to indicate future temperature change. (AR5 Chapter 8 Executive Summary Page 661)
The Prediction Chapter
Many More Predictions in AR4 than AR5, Why?
This section highlights all the important climate predictions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5.
AR4 and AR5 are the most complete and current climate information out there today, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.
I find it interesting from AR4 to AR5 climate questions have grown by several fold while predictions from the IPPC are less in AR5 than they were made in AR4. Why?
One reason for this increase in questions and less predictions comes from the fact many predictions the IPCC made in AR4 were missed. Including major predictions like the warming hiatus.
However, all this is not bad news as the IPCC is really learning more about the climate and learning more about the complex processes it holds.
This is just another example that the climate is not “figure out” and why the next generation of climate activists and scientists are needed more than ever!
Inspiring the next generation
You might be on the same path?
Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”.
Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.
AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists.
I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.
Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5
Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.
Following the Science
Become an informed climate activist!
10kclimatechallange
All the Chapters
My Personal Climate Journey.
35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.
Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5
Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.
Theory Chapter
Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.
Temperature Chapter
What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.
Model Chapter
Why use models? How are they doing?
Ocean Chapter
Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.
Atmosphere Chapter
Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?
Gases Chapter
Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Civilization Chapter
Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.
Question Chapter - ON LINE
Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.
Prediction Chapter
Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.
What is the IPCC?
UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.
AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)
Weather versus Climate
Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?
