10kclimatechallenge

10kclimatechallenge

Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)

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Ocean Questions

These are all the questions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.

AR6 is coming soon!

There are many important questions about the historical ocean temperature record before 2005 due to a lack of data. Understanding the ocean’s temperature and its changes are important as this is a factor on ocean currents which have a strong effect on global and regional temperatures.  

The IPCC lacks important data on ocean currents but seems to have more data on this than they do with ocean temperatures.

However, the IPCC admits they lack data on past global ocean currents as well. They note in 1992 a satellite was launched to measure oceans waves with a study done in the early 1990s by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. (AR5 Section 3.6.1 Page 281)

They note models can reproduce general features of large-scale ocean currents. However, they state “be cautious over these near-term projections” stating the models have a tough time with small changes in the NH ocean circulation. (AR5 Section 11.3.2.4.1 Page 988)

One of the reasons for problems in modeling ocean currents comes from natural instabilities like El Nino that can cause long term “upper ocean temperature anomalies” driving the atmosphere. (AR5 FAQ 11.1 Page 964)

El Nino is hard to predict just like hurricanes and storms which makes all of them difficult to model.

However, the IPCC tries to look at long-term circulation anomalies dating as far back as 1000 years ago. For example, they state there is some evidence that “long-term circulation anomalies may help to explain the hemispheric warmth early in the millennium, although results vary dependent on input parameters of the method.” (AR5 Section 10.7.1.1 Page 919)

There are questions about an important driver of ocean currents, the subtropical gyres. On this the IPCC believes it is “very likely” the subtropical gyres in the North Pacific and South Pacific have grown since 1993. They note it is “about as likely as not” that this is “decadal oscillation linked to changes in wind forcing”. (AR5 Section 3.6.3 Page 285)

The IPCC admits there has not been regular sampling of MOC (Meridional Overturning Circulation). However, they state there are indications that the MOC (Meridional Overturning Circulation) has slowed 30% during five samples taken from 1957 to 2004. (AR4 Section 9.5.1.3 Page 707)

Despite this the IPCC notes they believe that the AMOC (Altaic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is showing no indication of changing. (AR5 Section 3.6.3 Page 284)

It may be a surprise but even the sea ice may play an important role in effecting things like ocean currents, which then affects the climate.

For example, the IPCC in AR5 discusses the loss of global ice that “may affect global ocean currents and marine ecosystems”. (AR5 Section 4.1 Page 321)

The IPCC has other questions about sea ice but first the IPCC explains how sea ice is formed by stating sea ice is formed when heavy snow accumulates on the sea ice that then pushes it down causing flooding by sea water, this flooding then freezes the snow into ice. (AR5 Section 4.2 Page 323)

The IPCC distinguishes between Arctic sea ice thickness from the Antarctic sea ice thickness because of different properties of the ice, one over water with the other over the land. So, they note the thickness and reach of sea ice differs between Artic and Antarctica. (AR5 Section 4.2 Page 323)

The IPCC admits they “have much more data on Artic ice than we do on Antarctica ice thickness”. (AR5 Section 4.2 Page 323)

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So Many Model Questions

A big question today is if any Artic sea lose is a natural or an unnatural cycle?

The IPCC notes a study showing the Arctic ice loss in the 1920s and 30s was a natural 50 to 80-year cycle, but another study shows the 1920s and 30 was a one-time event caused by internal variability caused by atmospheric and ocean circulation. (AR5 Section 10.5.1 Page 907)

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The Questions Chapter

Questions and more questions.

This section highlights all the important climate questions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5. AR6 is coming soon!

AR4 and AR5 make up the most complete and current climate information out there, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.

You make think over time there would be less questions as the climate gets figured out, but from AR4 to AR5 the number of question and material increased by several fold.

One reason for this increase in climate questions from AR4 to AR5 is the fact many predictions made in AR4 were missed, and things have been learned.

The IPCC examines most of these in more detail throughout AR5 using AR4 as a base for the science.

Inspiring the next generation

My Climate Journey

You might be on the same path?

Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”. 

Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.

AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists. 

I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.

Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5

Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.

10kclimatechallange

All the Chapters

My Personal Climate Journey.

35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.

Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5

Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.

Theory Chapter

Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.

Temperature Chapter

What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.

Model Chapter

Why use models? How are they doing?

Ocean Chapter

Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.

Atmosphere Chapter

Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?

Gases Chapter

Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Civilization Chapter

Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.

Question Chapter - ON LINE

Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.

Prediction Chapter

Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.

What is the IPCC?

UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.

AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)

Weather versus Climate

Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?

Is the climate easier to predict than the weather?
In AR4 2007 the IPCC believed it was easier to predict the climate than the weather because weather is chaotic making it more unpredictable. They even stated that the climate is very different and more manageable even 50 years down the road. They had a strong believe in the models understanding of the climate processes. (AR4 Page 104 FAQ1.2)
However, seven years later the IPCC did a 180 as AR5 change dramatically. For example, now saying “It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short term weather forecasts.’ (AR5 Section 12.1 Page 1034)
Why did this change? What is going on? I thought the climate was all figured out?