10kclimatechallenge
10kclimatechallenge
Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)
Model Questions
These are all the questions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.
AR6 coming soon!
There are many challenges and questions for models when considering the amount of ice today and tomorrow.
For example, the IPCC states models have overestimated Artic sea ice up to 10% with Antarctica maybe double that. They go on to say their models predicted the Antarctic sea ice to grow but instead it shrunk. (AR5 Chapter 9 Executive Summary Page 744)
Again, the IPCC notes CMIP5 models have improved over CMIP3 as they are better at predicting sea ice in both hemispheres. However, they note models for Artic are within 10% on any given month with Antarctica error up to 20%. (AR5 Section 9.4.3 Page 788)
The IPCC goes on to note with “low confidence” the models show short term ice loss in Antarctica because the models vary by so much. The other problem is the ice has grown since the use of satellites. (AR5 Section 11.3.4.1 Page 996)
The IPCC explains “CMIP5 models overestimated the variability of sea ice extent” They note it is difficult to determine the effects of internal variability on sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean over the last 30 years. (AR5 Section 9.4.3 Page 788)
End of the Modeling Questions
So Many Atmosphere Questions.
There are many questions when it comes to determining past, present, and future simulations of temperature trends.
Understanding past temperature records are important as models need to be able to simulate the climate of the past to “be considered a viable tool for future projections” (AR5 Section 9.2.3 Page 755)
Let’s start by looking at the historical temperature record.
The Questions Chapter
Over 150 climate questions from AR4/AR5.
Questions and more questions.
This section highlights all the important climate questions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5. AR6 is coming soon!
AR4 and AR5 make up the most complete and current climate information out there, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.
You make think over time there would be less questions as the climate gets figured out, but from AR4 to AR5 the number of question and material increased by several fold.
One reason for this increase in climate questions from AR4 to AR5 is the fact many predictions made in AR4 were missed, and things have been learned.
The IPCC examines most of these in more detail throughout AR5 using AR4 as a base for the science.
Inspiring the next generation
You might be on the same path?
Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”.
Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.
AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists.
I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.
Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5
Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.
Following the Science
Become an informed climate activist!
10kclimatechallange
All the Chapters
My Personal Climate Journey.
35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.
Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5
Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.
Theory Chapter
Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.
Temperature Chapter
What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.
Model Chapter
Why use models? How are they doing?
Ocean Chapter
Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.
Atmosphere Chapter
Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?
Gases Chapter
Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Civilization Chapter
Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.
Question Chapter - ON LINE
Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.
Prediction Chapter
Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.
What is the IPCC?
UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.
AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)
Weather versus Climate
Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?
