10kclimatechallenge

10kclimatechallenge

Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)

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CO2 and Other Gases Questions

These are all the questions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.

AR6 coming soon!

There are many questions around CO2 even basic ones. For example, the IPCC states ice cores show CO2 has been in the “range of 180 to 300 ppm over the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 650 kyr”. A big unknown question noted by the IPCC is why does CO2 vary by this amount naturally? (AR4 Box 6.2 Page 446)

Another big area of question comes from the fact the IPCC does not have enough data on whether there has been an increase in rate CO2 entering the oceans. They cite some studies “suggesting the ocean uptake rate of total CO2 may have declined while others conclude that there is little evidence for a decline.” (AR5 Section 3.8.1 Page 293)

Other areas of question not fully understand include the full effects of CO2. For example, the IPCC explains they have “very high confidence CO2 has caused acidification of surface waters of between –0.0015 and –0.0024 pH units per year.” (AR5 Section 10.4.4 Page 906)

The IPCC goes on to explain CO2 is not uniformed around the global as there is more in the subtropics than at the poles because CO2 decreases towards them. As a result, the RF from CO2 is not uniformed around the globe. (AR5 Section 8.6.1 Page 702)

As a result, there is more CO2 RF or forcing in warm and dry regions than in wetter and higher altitude regions. (AR5 Section 8.6.1 Page 702)

Next, the IPCC address different types of forcing from CO2 like Radiative forcing (RF) and Effective Radiative forcing (ERF) where questions exist. RF sees temperature change from things like CO2 as well as other greenhouses gases more constant over time where ERF focuses more on the rapid change.

The IPCC goes on to tell us “ERF and RF value are significantly different for Anthropogenic aerosols owing to their influence on clouds and snow cover. These changes to clouds are rapid adjustments and occur on a time scale much faster than responses of the ocean.” (AR5 Chapter 8 Executive Summary Page 661)

The IPCC goes on to note they are “certain that the total anthropogenic ERF is positive.” They believe ERF has increased faster since 1970s. (AR5 Chapter 8 Executive Summary Page 661)

Aerosol Questions:

Another area of question is the effect of aerosols. For example, here the IPCC states, “Aerosols partially offset the forcing of the WMGHGs and dominate the uncertainty associated with the total anthropogenic driving the climate.” (AR5 Chapter 8 Executive Summary Page 661)

The IPCC admits they have changed their believed on the value range of aerosol forcing since AR4. They note they have lowered the effects of aerosol forcing to –0.35 (–0.85 to +0.15) W m–2. (AR5 Chapter 8 Executive Summary Page 662)

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Questions and more questions.

This section highlights all the important climate questions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5. AR6 is coming soon!

AR4 and AR5 make up the most complete and current climate information out there, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.

You make think over time there would be less questions as the climate gets figured out, but from AR4 to AR5 the number of question and material increased by several fold.

One reason for this increase in climate questions from AR4 to AR5 is the fact many predictions made in AR4 were missed, and things have been learned.

The IPCC examines most of these in more detail throughout AR5 using AR4 as a base for the science.

Inspiring the next generation

My Climate Journey

You might be on the same path?

Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”. 

Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.

AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists. 

I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.

Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5

Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.

10kclimatechallange.com

All the Chapters

My Personal Climate Journey.

35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.

Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5

Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.

Theory Chapter

Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.

Temperature Chapter

What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.

Model Chapter

Why use models? How are they doing?

Ocean Chapter

Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.

Atmosphere Chapter

Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?

Gases Chapter

Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Civilization Chapter

Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.

Question Chapter - ON LINE

Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.

Prediction Chapter

Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.

What is the IPCC?

UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.

AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)

Weather versus Climate

Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?

Is the climate easier to predict than the weather?
In AR4 2007 the IPCC believed it was easier to predict the climate than the weather because weather is chaotic making it more unpredictable. They even stated that the climate is very different and more manageable even 50 years down the road. They had a strong believe in the models understanding of the climate processes. (AR4 Page 104 FAQ1.2)
However, seven years later the IPCC did a 180 as AR5 change dramatically. For example, now saying “It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short term weather forecasts.’ (AR5 Section 12.1 Page 1034)
Why did this change? What is going on? I thought the climate was all figured out?