10kclimatechallenge

10kclimatechallenge

Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)

Climate Predictions

These are all the predictions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.

Important future predictions include global average temperature and radiative forcing. You can find summaries of these predictions from AR5 below.

Here the IPCC gives us the latest graph of all their models with their future projections for global average temperatures. See figure 12.5 (AR5 Section 12.4.1.1 Page 1054)

Here the IPCC shows a graph of all the models and their future projections for radiative forcing. See figure 12.4 (AR5 Section 12.3.3 Page 1053)

When it comes to predicting future temperatures, the IPCC downplays this ability from AR4 to AR5.

For example, in AR5 the IPCC states if the upper temperature predictions of 5°C are correct then by the end of the century this means the earth will see the same temperature change as seen at the end of the last ice age. (AR4 FAQ 6.2 Page 465)

The IPCC goes on here to state there is no evidence of any comparable rapid increase in global average temperature in the last 50 million years. (AR4 FAQ 6.2 Page 465)

However, in AR5 this changes some with statements like here where the IPCC admits there is an ‘uncertainty range’ when it comes to predicting temperature because uncertainties combine with natural year-to-year climate variability (AR5 FAQ 1.1 Page 140)

Today, in AR5 the IPCC presents a table of predictions of temperature and sea levels change seen throughout all the IPCC reports. (AR5 Table 1.1 Page 124)

The IPCC claims observations are within in range of the IPCC models including average global temperature and sea level rise as their models have advanced. (AR5 Executive Summary Page 121)

Over time it is important to track model’s performance on such predictions as the IPCC notes it is to evaluate model’s performance. (AR5 Section 9.1.1 page 746)

So Many Temperature Predictions

There are many questions on regional temperature differences but today the IPCC believes they have “high confidence” they can reproduce large-scale surface temperatures. However, they admit errors in regions up to several degrees. (AR5 Chapter 9 Executive Summary Page 743)

In AR5 the IPCC believes with “high confidence” their regional predictions are more accurate than they were in AR4. (AR5 Chapter 9 Executive Summary Page 743)

The Prediction Chapter

Many More Predictions in AR4 than AR5, Why?

This section highlights all the important climate predictions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5.

AR4 and AR5 are the most complete and current climate information out there today, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.

I find it interesting from AR4 to AR5 climate questions have grown by several fold while predictions from the IPPC are less in AR5 than they were made in AR4. Why?

One reason for this increase in questions and less predictions comes from the fact many predictions the IPCC made in AR4 were missed. Including major predictions like the warming hiatus. 

However, all this is not bad news as the IPCC is really learning more about the climate and learning more about the complex processes it holds.

This is just another example that the climate is not “figure out” and why the next generation of climate activists and scientists are needed more than ever!

Inspiring the next generation

My Climate Journey

You might be on the same path?

Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”. 

Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.

AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists. 

I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.

Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5

Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.

10kclimatechallange

All the Chapters

My Personal Climate Journey.

35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.

Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5

Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.

Theory Chapter

Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.

Temperature Chapter

What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.

Model Chapter

Why use models? How are they doing?

Ocean Chapter

Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.

Atmosphere Chapter

Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?

Gases Chapter

Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Civilization Chapter

Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.

Question Chapter - ON LINE

Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.

Prediction Chapter

Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.

What is the IPCC?

UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.

AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)

Weather versus Climate

Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?

Is the climate easier to predict than the weather?
In AR4 2007 the IPCC believed it was easier to predict the climate than the weather because weather is chaotic making it more unpredictable. They even stated that the climate is very different and more manageable even 50 years down the road. They had a strong believe in the models understanding of the climate processes. (AR4 Page 104 FAQ1.2)
However, seven years later the IPCC did a 180 as AR5 change dramatically. For example, now saying “It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short term weather forecasts.’ (AR5 Section 12.1 Page 1034)
Why did this change? What is going on? I thought the climate was all figured out?