10kclimatechallenge
10kclimatechallenge
Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)
IPPC's Climate Predictions
These are all the predictions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.
When it comes to making predictions I applaud the IPCC as they are not shy about making them with some working out, some not, and still others unresolved. I found AR4 to have more predictions because at the time the IPCC had more confidence in their models even thinking that predicting the climate was easier than predicting the weather.
For example, in AR4 (2007) the IPCC addresses the criticism on how can they make climate predictions 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather two weeks out?
In AR4 the IPCC notes “the chaotic nature of weather making it unpredictable beyond a few days”, but believe predicting changes in climate is “very different and much more manageable issue”. They made the analogy that even though we know the average age a person may die we cannot predict an individual death. (AR4 FAQ 1.2 Page 96)
Later in AR5 (2014) the IPCC does a 180 by stating “It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short term weather forecasts.’ They note two reasons here, “first because they are dependent primarily on scenarios of future anthropogenic and natural forcings that are uncertain, second because of incomplete understanding and imprecise models of the climate system and finally because of the existence of internal climate variability.” (AR5 Section 12.1 Page 1034)
The IPCC states further in AR5 that models are able to project the “direction of climate change“ but the projected size of those changes cannot be precisely predicted.” (AR5 FAQ 1.1 Page 140)
AR5 steps back from AR4 confidence by explaining that models reflect our current understanding and the ability of our technology. They admit they are not perfect as they explain models reflect our current knowledge about the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology. (AR5 Section 1.2.3 Page 129)
I think it is important to ask why the big change? Going from an AR4 where the IPCC is sure the climate is much easier to predict than the weather, to AR5 where they claim the weather is easier to understand than the climate. This is a complete 180-degree switch, but why?
Seems to me the warming hiatus is by far the most important prediction missed in AR4, such an important missed prediction seems to have changed the IPCC confidence in their understanding of the climate they had in AR4. I think this a very important admission that so much more needs to be learned about the climate, and as time goes on there are more questions than answers today.
The Prediction Chapter
Click on the topics below
Art of Making Predications - Above
Many More Predictions in AR4 than AR5, Why?
This section highlights all the important climate predictions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5.
AR4 and AR5 are the most complete and current climate information out there today, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.
I find it interesting from AR4 to AR5 climate questions have grown by several fold while predictions from the IPPC are less in AR5 than they were made in AR4. Why?
One reason for this increase in questions and less predictions comes from the fact many predictions the IPCC made in AR4 were missed. Including major predictions like the warming hiatus.
However, all this is not bad news as the IPCC is really learning more about the climate and learning more about the complex processes it holds.
This is just another example that the climate is not “figure out” and why the next generation of climate activists and scientists are needed more than ever!
Inspiring the next generation
You might be on the same path?
Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”.
Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.
AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists.
I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.
Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5
Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.
Following the Science
Become an informed climate activist!
10kclimatechallange
All the Chapters
My Personal Climate Journey.
35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.
Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5
Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.
Theory Chapter
Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.
Temperature Chapter
What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.
Model Chapter
Why use models? How are they doing?
Ocean Chapter
Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.
Atmosphere Chapter
Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?
Gases Chapter
Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Civilization Chapter
Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.
Question Chapter
Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.
Prediction Chapter
Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.
What is the IPCC?
UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.
AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)
Weather versus Climate
Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?
