10kclimatechallenge

10kclimatechallenge

Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)

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Ocean Questions

These are all the questions I found related to this topic in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.

AR6 coming soon!

The IPCC explains measuring sea levels is not as simple as filling a bathtub because sea level rise is affected by many things including “ocean currents, winds, the Earth’s gravity field and land height.” As a result, they state it is a mistake to think any melting of ice anywhere will rise the ocean uniformly across the globe. (AR5 FAQ 13.1 Page 1149)

Based on tide gauge records the IPCC believes the global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by 0.19 m between 1901–2010, noting it is “very likely” the sea level has risen 1.7mm each year from 1901 to 2010. Then increasing to 3.2mm between 1993 and 2010, or almost double. (AR5 Chapter 3 Executive Summary Page 258)

The IPCC expresses “medium confidence” that wave height has increased since the 1950s based on things like ship observations in North Atlantic Ocean north of 45°N. Up to 20cm per decade. (AR5 Chapter 3 Executive Summary Page 258)

The IPCC notes with “medium confidence average sea level rise has not exceeded ~ ±0.25 m on time scales of a few hundred years in the last 2000 years”. (AR5 Section 13.2.1.4 Page 1146)

These next comments focus on the time period of 3000 to 7000 years ago when the sea level is known to have risen the most since the ice age.  

The IPCC notes the sea has “likely” risen 2 to 3 meters in the last 3000 to 7000 years. (AR5 Section 13.2.1.4 Page 1146)

The IPCC goes on to note improvements in their understanding of the history of sea level rise since AR4, with a focus on the last 7000 years. (AR5 Section 13.2.1.4 Page 1146)

Personally, I find this is interesting because for the most part the IPCC ignores the temperature data from 3000 to 7000-year timeframe despite GISP showing the temperature on the century scale was much higher than today during that time period.

The IPCC does little to explain this past temperature change. Personally, I would even claim the IPCC goes out of their way to ignore temperature data from this time period as well as others. I discuss this more in my temperature chapter.

GISP versus Vostok

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So Many CO2 Questions

There are many questions around CO2 even basic ones.

For example, the IPCC states ice cores show CO2 has been in the “range of 180 to 300 ppm over the glacial-interglacial cycles of the last 650 kyr”. A big unknown question noted by the IPCC is why does CO2 vary by this amount naturally? (AR4 Box 6.2 Page 446)

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The Questions Chapter

Questions and more questions.

This section highlights all the important climate questions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5. AR6 is coming soon!

AR4 and AR5 make up the most complete and current climate information out there, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.

You make think over time there would be less questions as the climate gets figured out, but from AR4 to AR5 the number of question and material increased by several fold.

One reason for this increase in climate questions from AR4 to AR5 is the fact many predictions made in AR4 were missed, and things have been learned.

The IPCC examines most of these in more detail throughout AR5 using AR4 as a base for the science.

Inspiring the next generation

My Climate Journey

You might be on the same path?

Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”. 

Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.

AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists. 

I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.

Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5

Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.

10kclimatechallange

All the Chapters

My Personal Climate Journey.

35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.

Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5

Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.

Theory Chapter

Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.

Temperature Chapter

What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.

Model Chapter

Why use models? How are they doing?

Ocean Chapter

Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.

Atmosphere Chapter

Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?

Gases Chapter

Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Civilization Chapter

Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.

Question Chapter - ON LINE

Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.

Prediction Chapter

Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.

What is the IPCC?

UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.

AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)

Weather versus Climate

Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?

Is the climate easier to predict than the weather?
In AR4 2007 the IPCC believed it was easier to predict the climate than the weather because weather is chaotic making it more unpredictable. They even stated that the climate is very different and more manageable even 50 years down the road. They had a strong believe in the models understanding of the climate processes. (AR4 Page 104 FAQ1.2)
However, seven years later the IPCC did a 180 as AR5 change dramatically. For example, now saying “It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short term weather forecasts.’ (AR5 Section 12.1 Page 1034)
Why did this change? What is going on? I thought the climate was all figured out?