10kclimatechallenge

10kclimatechallenge

Are you the next great climate scientist? Awarding $10,000 for the proven reproducible rate of CO2 forcing. (Verified by the UN IPCC)

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Temperature Questions

These are all the questions I found related to this subject in the 3000+ pages of IPCC AR4 and AR5.

AR6 coming soon!

In 1965 Hubert Lamb notice there was evidence from around the world of a warming from 1000 to 1200 AD calling it the ‘Medieval Warm Epoch’ or ‘Little Optimum’ (AR4 Box 6.4 Page 468)

More is known about the medieval warming period today which now covers the time period from 800 to 1200 years ago and is a primary focus of the IPCC in both AR4 and AR5. The main reason for this focus is there are existing proxies covering this period providing valuable data.

Proxies are from things like tree rings, coral reefs, ice cores, pollen, and more. However, the IPCC goes on to explain proxies are not as accurate as instrumental measurements for many reasons.

For one, the IPCC tells us as times goes on the data is sparser or lacking after a 1000 or so years. Second, there are questions on if the link is related to temperature or something else. For example, were past tree ring sizes influenced by changes in temperature or moisture, ph., or maybe something else? (AR5 Section 10.7 Page 917)

Here, the IPCC tells us “forcing and temperature reconstructions are subject to large uncertainties”. They handle such uncertainties with the use of several proxies covering the past 1000 years. (AR4 Section 9.6.3.1 Page 724)

During this period the IPCC notes a study covering the NH (northern hemisphere) showing the medieval was warmer on the 2-kyr time scale. However, they cannot prove whether it was as warm as today, or how long the warming lasted in different regions. (AR4 Box 6.4 Page 468)

The IPCC explains the medieval warming was probably .1°C to .2°C lower than the temperatures seen the last 50 years, but they also admit there is uncertainty as record updates are needed because many are over 20 years old. They express a need for wider geographic coverage as there are very few records from oceans, tropics, and SH (Southern Hemisphere). (AR4 Box 6.4 Page 468)

The IPCC states proxies show today’s global average temperature is “at least as warm as any other century since at least 1400 AD”. They admit data is lacking to “allow the reliable estimation” of earth’s average temperature past 1400 AD. (AR5 Table 1.1 Page 124)

The IPCC does not address much of the data available from past civilizations during the medieval warming period. For example, the IPCC states looking at past climate changes effect on bio systems or past civilizations are not within their scope or to be covered. (AR5 Section 5.1 Page 388)

However, the IPCC does admit there is evidence from past civilization of a warmer period for a few centuries a 1000 years ago. For example, they describe how Norse settlers were able to settle Greenland because of less sea ice in the 10th century. (AR4 Box 6.4 Page 468)

We have a lot to learn from our ancestors as this provides us some real data points. For example, we know the Anasazi Indians thrived in America’s southwest desert in a wetter warmer environment for 400 years during the medieval period. Many others civilizations from the Mayans to the Vikings who also thrived during the medieval period.

However, despite evidence from past several cultures thriving in wetter warmer environment for hundreds of years the IPCC does little to address these while claiming many studies show today is warmer or just as warm as 1000 years ago.

The length of time is also not addressed by the IPCC despite the Medieval warming lasting for 400 years or so compared to today’s warming of maybe a few decades.

As a side note, I have yet to find one past great civilization that thrive when temperatures went down. I found only the opposite as past civilizations seem to do very well during periods when temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were rising. As far as I can tell if our civilization does fail because of rising temperatures it would be the first to do so since the ice age, but I am still looking.

The IPCC for the most part ignores temperature data during the 3000 to 7000-year ago timeframe as well despite GISP showing the temperature on the century scale was much higher than today. I find the IPCC does not try to explain what caused past warming as they seem more concerned with trying to portray today’s temperature higher than it was during the Medieval.  

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So Many Temperature Questions.

There are several important questions since the Medieval Warming as AR5 admits today they cannot explain the warming that occurred in the 10th century. (AR5 Section 10.7.1.1 Page 918)

Then in the 14th century warming the IPCC notes it is possible natural forcing caused by the storage and transport of heat delayed the warming of the Southern Ocean. (AR4 Section 9.3.3.3 Page 683)

questions, who, what

The Questions Chapter

Questions and more questions.

This section highlights all the important climate questions described in the UN’s IPCC assessment reports, AR4 and AR5.

AR4 and AR5 are the most complete and current climate information out there today, a road map for future generations. However, they are not the easiest reads because information on any particular subject is found throughout the 3000+ pages of these reports.

You make think over time there would be less questions as the climate gets figured out, but from AR4 to AR5 the number of question and material increased by several fold.

One reason for this increase in questions comes from the fact many predictions the IPCC made in AR4 missed.

These missed predictions needed to be examined in more detail in AR5.

Inspiring the next generation

My Climate Journey

You might be on the same path?

Sharing what I have learned in my 35 years of being a “climate activist”. 

Be an informed climate activist or maybe even the next great scientist.

AR4 and AR5 are road maps for the next generation of climate scientists. 

I am awarding $10,000 for the proven rate of CO2 forcing to the next great scientist of our time.

Review of the IPCC AR4 and AR5

Collection of 9200 peer-reviewed climate studies. This is the science with 100s of questions, contradictions, missed predictions, areas lacking data, and more.

10kclimatechallange

All the Chapters

My Personal Climate Journey.

35 years and counting. You may be on the same journey.

Review of IPCC AR4 and AR5

Why AR4 and AR5 are so important.

Theory Chapter

Breaks down CO2 forcing and why models are important.

Temperature Chapter

What is warming? Entire earth? Oceans? Surface? What to know.

Model Chapter

Why use models? How are they doing?

Ocean Chapter

Role of the world's oceans that stores over 90% of Earth's heat.

Atmosphere Chapter

Is the atmosphere cooling or warming the earth?

Gases Chapter

Focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gases.

Civilization Chapter

Looking at past climate change affect on previous civilizations.

Question Chapter - ON LINE

Summary of every important question I found in AR4/AR5. More than 150 of them.

Prediction Chapter

Summary of every important prediction I found in AR4/AR5.

What is the IPCC?

UN’s IPCC Assessment Reports 4 and 5 (AR4 2007 and AR5 2014). These UN reports include over 600 authors from 32 different countries assessing 9,200 peer-reviewed studies so they are the all-inclusive on the current state of climate science putting out new reports every seven or so years.

AR5 explains the United Nation’s IPCC was created in 1988 to provide world governments with “clear information on the state of today’s climate science as well as potential impacts, and options for adaptation and migration based on regular assessments”. (AR5 Section 1.2.1 page 123)

Weather versus Climate

Is the weather or the climate easier to predict?

Is the climate easier to predict than the weather?
In AR4 2007 the IPCC believed it was easier to predict the climate than the weather because weather is chaotic making it more unpredictable. They even stated that the climate is very different and more manageable even 50 years down the road. They had a strong believe in the models understanding of the climate processes. (AR4 Page 104 FAQ1.2)
However, seven years later the IPCC did a 180 as AR5 change dramatically. For example, now saying “It is not possible to make deterministic, definitive predictions of how climate will evolve over the next century and beyond as it is with short term weather forecasts.’ (AR5 Section 12.1 Page 1034)
Why did this change? What is going on? I thought the climate was all figured out?